Equal odds
Mega Millions has 290,472,336 possible lines. Every one of them has exactly the same chance of being drawn.
What Wisenum measures
Many players pick their numbers the same way: birthdays, sequences, patterns on the play slip. When those numbers come up, the jackpot and prizes are shared between more winners. Wisenum estimates how closely a line resembles these common choices — its “popularity” — from the official results published after every draw, and suggests lines that resemble them less.
What the results show
Over the last 200 draws (since Nov 5, 2024), when the numbers drawn were among those Wisenum rates as the most played, there were on average 30% more winners for the same number of players than when they were among the least played.
95% bootstrap interval: 24% to 36%, comparing the 50 draws rated most played with the 50 rated least played. It describes past draws, not a forecast.
The estimate is updated every quarter with the new official results: it currently covers draws up to Sep 25, 2026.
Before a model is used, it is checked against official results it was not built from. Readings from a model that has not passed are never presented as validated.
What it cannot measure
Official results do not say how many people played exactly your line. Popularity is an estimate of general tendencies, not a promise of a prize or of being a sole winner.