Saturday Lotto methodology

What the results show

Over the last 200 draws (since Dec 17, 2022), when the numbers drawn were among those Wisenum rates as the most played, there were on average 20% more winners for the same number of players than when they were among the least played.

95% bootstrap interval: 14% to 26%, comparing the 50 draws rated most played with the 50 rated least played. It describes past draws, not a forecast.

The estimate is updated every quarter with the new official results: it currently covers draws up to Oct 10, 2026.

Before a model is used, it is checked against official results it was not built from. Readings from a model that has not passed are never presented as validated.

How the Saturday Lotto estimate was checked

Every figure below comes from the model files Wisenum serves for Saturday Lotto. Another game’s test is never shown here.

Fitted on

1,502 official Saturday Lotto draws, Jan 3, 1998 to Oct 10, 2026

What was measured

Official winner counts in lower prize tiers, against what chance and the number of tickets predict

How it was tested

6 chronological tests, 900 draws in all: each draw’s winner counts estimated by a model fitted only on earlier draws

Result on draws not used for fitting

Prediction error 26% lower than a model that ignores number patterns

Popularity calibration

Exponent 1.9 (95 % range 1.68–2.12), improved the fit in 5 of 5 chronological tests

Tickets-in-play forecast

Typical error 13%; 8 in 10 draws within -6% to +24% of the published figures It has not met its own accuracy goal yet, so sharing estimates for this game carry that extra uncertainty.

The history replay of a line covers every draw under the current rules; that count can differ from the draws used to fit the model.